Concept
Radical Uncertainty
A stance toward forecasting major technology shifts that treats confident predictions about winners, timelines, and eventual use cases as unreliable, since the real applications of a new platform typically aren't discovered until years after it is introduced.
Radical Uncertainty
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Well, I I should just kind of wind back on what you just said is like as Kees tells us in the long run we're all dead. So, you know, it's all you know like on average um you know on average nobody died in World War I.
Concept
Radical Uncertainty
A stance toward forecasting major technology shifts that treats confident predictions about winners, timelines, and eventual use cases as unreliable, since the real applications of a new platform typically aren't discovered until years after it is introduced.
Related Concepts2
Related Practices4
Ask about this concept
Transcript mentions
Well, I I should just kind of wind back on what you just said is like as Kees tells us in the long run we're all dead. So, you know, it's all you know like on average um you know on average nobody died in World War I.